SoPN: Campbell, Gregory - Democratic Unionist Party - D.U.P. Holmes, Richard John - Ulster Unionist Party McCaw, Chris - Alliance Party Nicholl, Dermot - Sinn Féin Quigley, Stephanie - SDLP (Social Democratic & Labour Party) St Clair-Legge, Liz - Conservatives
If the new boundaries do come into place in this area this may very well be last Gregory Campbell's successful election. He'll win by a comfortable margin.
Surely Campbell would just shift eastwards to the new Dalriada/Coleraine & North Antrim, given that his base and the majority of his votes are going there. Now if Girvan takes South Antrim from the UUP, that would create a battle between himself and Ian Paisley Jr for the new West Antrim, and Paisley might look northward in that event.
(Of course, this all assumes that the reduction in seats goes ahead - a narrow enough Tory majority or less and the DUP might be able to scupper it.)
Safe DUP by some twisted logic. Sinn Féin were behind by 3,000 votes in March, but that was with the Unionist vote being split 6 ways instead of 3.
Where Sugden's vote goes is probably the most interesting thing about this election. In the Assembly elections she's sitting on a pile of would-be UUP votes along with preventing any growth in the Alliance vote (this constituency had the smallest increase in Alliance vote from 2016-2017).
UUP selected Bann councillor Richard Holmes, will increase from the Assembly election but not sure he will match the 15% in 2015.
Another seat where Sinn Féin had a large increase in March. They will come a respectable second but under current boundaries their ceiling is too low to give Gregory a challenge. Selected Benbradagh councillor Dermott Nicholl instead of their sitting MLA or her election running mate.
Coleraine councillor Stephanie Quigley for the SDLP. Will be hoping to at least hold steady after two terrible elections in the constituency. Wonder if Quigley is the first choice for a co-option or they've just picked whichever councillor had the time.
Alliance hoping for solid results in the Coleraine and Causeway DEAs for the next council elections.