Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 19, 2017 23:04:05 GMT
7 saved deposits here last time.
"Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen [pounds] nineteen [shillings] and six [pence], result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery."
Easy DUP hold, Shannon will get double the UUP vote. Will pick up voters who went to the TUV or UKIP in 2015.
Third best DUP constituency in March and only one where they returned 3 MLAs. Shannon is popular for being shameless in using expenses to do constituency work, including using staff travel expenses to hand deliver letters due to the stationary allocation budget being used up. UUP will improve on their poor 2015 performance when they ran an unknown candidate but Nesbitt's vote ceiling in around 20%, what the UUP have scored in the past 3 Assembly elections. Nesbitt's 27% in 2010 was a fluke with tactical voting due to the Iris Robinson scandal and Nesbitt being nice news reporter who's new to politics. Alliance should be around 14-15%. Armstrong seems to have strong appeal to the Catholic/Nationalist community in Strangford, the voter surge among CNR voters mainly benefitted her, she had the largest increase in Alliance % share while the SDLP+SF vote in Strangford had the lowest % increase in all 18 constituencies. SDLP, never manage to get their act together here, after 19 years I don't see how they will now. If the NI Conservatives manage to hold their deposit again, it will be the success of the night! Greens and Sinn Féin to battle out for the wooden spoon prize.